To lay or not to lay…..   Leave a comment

Calculating EV is not necessary in most decisions, however on occasion, it can be useful. Its also useful to understand EV and how it changes when you tweak your bets.

“If bets” seem to be in vogue with the average bookmaker these days. They offer the bookmaker the ability to promote themselves in general ,direct punters to gamble on certain markets or even to encourage punters to gamble a certain way, which I presume they use for risk management purposes.

An “if bet” is a bet that offers a bonus or refund if certain events occur, such as a red card refund.

These offers in the long term can offer a steady profit for AP players, however in forums and chat rooms you will see players disagree on how to deal with them. Some will try and lay the result to lock in profit, some will not. Of course these decisions can to some degree will depend on the odds of the event occurring. A typical “if bet” however will have odds in excess of 5.0.

Assume zero loss Qualifier at evens (100% refund to £50)
Odds of event (lay value) 5.0
Value of Bonus / Refund £ 50.00
Amount to lay £ 10.00
Profit If event occurs £ 10.00
Profit if event does not occur £ 10.00
Assuming 0% commision
  If Event  
  Probable Win Amount
WW 10.00% 1.00
WL 40.00% 4.00
LW 10.00% 1.00
LL 40.00% 4.00
  100.00% 10.00 << Expected Value
Assume zero loss Qualifier at evens (100% refund to £50)
Odds of event (lay value) 5.0
Value of Bonus / Refund £ 50.00
Amount to lay £ –
Profit If event occurs £ 50.00
Profit if event does not occur £ –
Assuming 0% commision
  If Event  
  Probable Win Amount  
WW 10.00% 5.00
WL 40.00% 0.00
LW 10.00% 5.00
LL 40.00% 0.00
  100.00% 10.00 << Expected Value

It appears based on my dodgy analysis that at zero commission laying or not laying has no bearing on the expected outcome it seems. If we factor in commission however…….

Assume zero loss Qualifier at evens (100% refund to £50)
Odds of event (lay value) 5.0
Value of Bonus / Refund £ 50.00
Amount to lay £ 10.10
Profit If event occurs £ 9.60
Profit if event does not occur £ 9.60
Assuming 5% commision
  If Event  
  Probable Win Amount
WW 10.00% 0.96
WL 40.00% 3.84
LW 10.00% 0.96
LL 40.00% 3.84
  100.00% 9.60  << Expected Value
Assume zero loss Qualifier at evens (100% refund to £50)
Odds of event (lay value) 5.0
Value of Bonus / Refund £ 50.00
Amount to lay £ –
Profit If event occurs £ 50.00
Profit if event does not occur £ –
Assuming 5% commision
  If Event  
  Probable Win Amount  
WW 10.00% 5.00
WL 40.00% 0.00
LW 10.00% 5.00
LL 40.00% 0.00
  100.00% 10.00 << Expected Value

It seems by not laying or laying less, you are reducing your exposure to commission and therefore increasing the expected value of the bet. But of course risk increases as you will be exposing yourself to the some what unpredictable variance and not laying is a pure gamble. Though of course assuming you’re laying off the risk of the qualifier it will be risk free.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: