Trading experiment – starting small..   Leave a comment

I decided over the weekend to have a go at some small scale trading, nothing fancy, lowish stakes and only for a couple of games.

Game 1

It was a last minute decision as I was sitting down to watch the Crawley – Stoke game. If I were to have chosen a game to trade on with more thought, this would not have been it. But hey, I was playing with peanuts.

I chose to trade on over 1.5 goals, although I expected few goals in the game I was still expecting a couple, I was of the opinion Crawley would probably score, so two goals were likely.

After 10 Minutes of play I backed over 1.5 goals for 1.56 for £10. Not a great price I thought but what the hell.

On 17 minutes, Delap got himself sent off. This gave me mixed feelings as I was unsure if this would be good for goals or not given it was thr Prem side who had been handicapped.

The odds crept up alarmingly, the inherent risk aversion the runs through my body was shouting at me to trade out, but I was stead fast.

On 42 Minutes Crawley conceded a penalty, and Walters scored.

The odds tumbled thankfully, I knew that I should wait to trade out, I knew I should have waited until 5-10 minutes after half time ideally, but I decided to trade out at this point.at 1.39 for £1.20 profit.

Game 2

I had decided to do a similar experiment with the Barcelona game, I had a lot of money on the game anyway, so I was planning on watching it. However, parent duties meant I missed the first 10 minutes or so of the game and Valencia had decided to score early.

I was going to leave it there, the odds on over 1.5 Goals were very very low anyway, as were the odds on over 2.5. But I decided to trade at over 3.5 goals instead.

I backed over 3,5 goals for £5 at 1.78.

The game was amazing, Messi was incredible and after waves of attack Barca equalised on 22 minutes, stupidly I decided to trade out straight away at 1.32 for £1.67 profit.Five minutes later Messi scored again, and the odds dropped to nothing, doh!

Conclusion?

What have I learned from this experiment… 

  • I learned, this method certainly can return a profit, though I suspect loses, when they happen, will be greater than profits.
  • I learned that I need more mental resolve to avoid trading out too early, as I could have made far greater profits had I held out.
  • I learned I need to pick the games carefully.

What I have also learned is that I need to continue this experiment with many more small stakes and see where it takes me.

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Posted February 21, 2012 by apeveryday in Betfair Trading, Gambling Strategy

Tagged with , ,

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