Corals Consolation Cashback   Leave a comment

The main if bets I have been betting on lately  are Corals consolation cash back promo.. 

In this promotion you get a refund if a late goal turns a winning bet in to a losing bet. 

To be frank I have not had many refunds, although CSKA Moscow’s late goal against Real Madrid last night should trigger a refund. 

I have decided to try an calculate as best as I can the odds of a refund being paid out, if its actually possible that is. 

I have no idea as to the number of goals scored in injury typically, but I have found this stat….

  

This suggest 22.6% of goals are scored in the last 15 minutes of a game +  added time. If we assume 3 minutes average added time, this means 22.6% are scored in the final 18 minutes of the average game. 

Added time would be 3/18 of 22.6% = 3.76%. Given the trend of more goals being scored late on I am going to round this up to 5%. 

This means there is a 19/1 (20 decimal) chance of a goal being scored in added time. As far as I can tell from the T&Cs however this does not guarantee a payout as the bet has to go from a winning bet to a losing bet.

Not going to explain my dodgy maths behind this too much, basically the odds a team scoring to change the result is based on the odds of them winning the match the odds of a late goal. 

This suggests that the betting on a strongish favourite gives odds in the 60’s, those odds will fall as the strength of the favourite increases, up to a point of course. 

The rationale for taking an ifbet is value. For the bet to have any value your effective odds need to greater than the actual odds. If we assume the actual odds on the above event occurring are 60/1 for a £50 bet we would need to bet with a loss of less than about 85 pence.

This is fine, I do prefer to take only very very small loss matches or better anyway, but I do need to scale down my expectation of a return from these bets. They are worth doing if your float has nothing better to do, but any return is most definitely in the long run.

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Posted February 22, 2012 by apeveryday in Gambling Strategy

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