Horsey Staking Plans   Leave a comment

Yes its my first post for a while, I have been tight with both gambling and PC time.

However, I have had a look at a staking plan certain people are following and that is “out there” if you look around, to decide just how much value there is in them.

The kind of plan I am talking about is a plan where you would set yourself a daily target of say 2% of your float. Bet on one race trying to win that amount, if you fail to win, bet again, to recoup the losses for the day and hit your target on the second attempt and so on, until you hit your target at which point your stop betting. The basic idea is to grow your float daily.

My own rule of thumb with regard chasing losses is that it is a BAD thing to do. So I started my analysis of this strategy with a negative attitude.

The analysis I have done has made several assumptions: –

1. Target return per day is 1.5%.

2. There is no over round on the book (unlikely) and the odds for the selected horse exactly equals its odds of it winning. (however I have built in a % return over the odds, to factor in the fact the bettor will most likely be betting with knowledge of horses and therefore have a slight edge)

3. I have set up two scenarios, one where we chase the previous days losses, one where we do not.

4. The odds on the selected horse in each race are all equal, in this case 2/1 or 3.0. (for simplicity)

5. We will always have four selections per day to bet on.

6. Starting float £100

That’s about it. I set up a spreadsheet, using a random numbers to decide if a selection won or not based on the % chance of the horse winning and any edge the bettor might have.

i.e. if the odds where evens (3.0), then the horse would stand a 33.33% chance of winning, if the bettor has a 5% edge then the chance of the horse winning will be 35%. The RAND command in excel generates a number between 0 and 1 so my analysis assumes in this scenario that a horse will be a winner of the random number is less than or equal to 0.35.

The results of Scenario 1 (Do no chase previous days losses)

Test 1

Test 2

The results of Scenario 1 (Chase previous days losses)

Test 1

Test 2

Conclusions

The first conclusion to draw from the above analysis is to never chase the previous days losses, that seems to be the path to ruin!

The other scenario however is not quite so bad. The first test shows a profit of £582 over 500 days, which is not bad and looks like a good investment, dependent on the time you will have to put in making the best possible selections to bet on. The second test does not stack up quite as well however, showing just £14 profit over the same period.

In 100 runs this scenario generated a balance between £15 and £930 over the 505 days, the mean balance was between £150 and £200. This represents a profit and a profit better than would be achieved with most traditional forms of investment. However, the risk is high, the variance is high and the returns although potentially good can be beat with other sports book activities. The question is how good is your knowledge, what kind of edge do you have? As with all gambling this method requires the gambler to have an edge to profit in the long term.

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Posted March 29, 2012 by apeveryday in Uncategorized

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