Archive for the ‘Gambling Strategy’ Category

Horsey Staking Plans   Leave a comment

Horsey Staking Plans.

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Posted June 26, 2012 by apeveryday in Gambling Strategy

Corals Consolation Cashback   Leave a comment

The main if bets I have been betting on lately  are Corals consolation cash back promo.. 

In this promotion you get a refund if a late goal turns a winning bet in to a losing bet. 

To be frank I have not had many refunds, although CSKA Moscow’s late goal against Real Madrid last night should trigger a refund. 

I have decided to try an calculate as best as I can the odds of a refund being paid out, if its actually possible that is. 

I have no idea as to the number of goals scored in injury typically, but I have found this stat….

  

This suggest 22.6% of goals are scored in the last 15 minutes of a game +  added time. If we assume 3 minutes average added time, this means 22.6% are scored in the final 18 minutes of the average game. 

Added time would be 3/18 of 22.6% = 3.76%. Given the trend of more goals being scored late on I am going to round this up to 5%. 

This means there is a 19/1 (20 decimal) chance of a goal being scored in added time. As far as I can tell from the T&Cs however this does not guarantee a payout as the bet has to go from a winning bet to a losing bet.

Not going to explain my dodgy maths behind this too much, basically the odds a team scoring to change the result is based on the odds of them winning the match the odds of a late goal. 

This suggests that the betting on a strongish favourite gives odds in the 60’s, those odds will fall as the strength of the favourite increases, up to a point of course. 

The rationale for taking an ifbet is value. For the bet to have any value your effective odds need to greater than the actual odds. If we assume the actual odds on the above event occurring are 60/1 for a £50 bet we would need to bet with a loss of less than about 85 pence.

This is fine, I do prefer to take only very very small loss matches or better anyway, but I do need to scale down my expectation of a return from these bets. They are worth doing if your float has nothing better to do, but any return is most definitely in the long run.

Posted February 22, 2012 by apeveryday in Gambling Strategy

Trading experiment – starting small..   Leave a comment

I decided over the weekend to have a go at some small scale trading, nothing fancy, lowish stakes and only for a couple of games.

Game 1

It was a last minute decision as I was sitting down to watch the Crawley – Stoke game. If I were to have chosen a game to trade on with more thought, this would not have been it. But hey, I was playing with peanuts.

I chose to trade on over 1.5 goals, although I expected few goals in the game I was still expecting a couple, I was of the opinion Crawley would probably score, so two goals were likely.

After 10 Minutes of play I backed over 1.5 goals for 1.56 for £10. Not a great price I thought but what the hell.

On 17 minutes, Delap got himself sent off. This gave me mixed feelings as I was unsure if this would be good for goals or not given it was thr Prem side who had been handicapped.

The odds crept up alarmingly, the inherent risk aversion the runs through my body was shouting at me to trade out, but I was stead fast.

On 42 Minutes Crawley conceded a penalty, and Walters scored.

The odds tumbled thankfully, I knew that I should wait to trade out, I knew I should have waited until 5-10 minutes after half time ideally, but I decided to trade out at this point.at 1.39 for £1.20 profit.

Game 2

I had decided to do a similar experiment with the Barcelona game, I had a lot of money on the game anyway, so I was planning on watching it. However, parent duties meant I missed the first 10 minutes or so of the game and Valencia had decided to score early.

I was going to leave it there, the odds on over 1.5 Goals were very very low anyway, as were the odds on over 2.5. But I decided to trade at over 3.5 goals instead.

I backed over 3,5 goals for £5 at 1.78.

The game was amazing, Messi was incredible and after waves of attack Barca equalised on 22 minutes, stupidly I decided to trade out straight away at 1.32 for £1.67 profit.Five minutes later Messi scored again, and the odds dropped to nothing, doh!

Conclusion?

What have I learned from this experiment… 

  • I learned, this method certainly can return a profit, though I suspect loses, when they happen, will be greater than profits.
  • I learned that I need more mental resolve to avoid trading out too early, as I could have made far greater profits had I held out.
  • I learned I need to pick the games carefully.

What I have also learned is that I need to continue this experiment with many more small stakes and see where it takes me.

Posted February 21, 2012 by apeveryday in Betfair Trading, Gambling Strategy

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Spreadsheet mock up   Leave a comment

Here is a quick mock up, its more complex than I would like at the moment however.

The basic concept is to have..

  1. A Bookie Listing
  2. An offers (regulars & subs) listing
  3. A standard bet listing (a simple list of typical bets you may make)
  4. I will be able to “Quick Select” an offer, which will auto fill my spreadsheet to some degree
  5. I will then need to enter Date, Event, Odds and adjust stakes if required
  6. The sheet allows figures to be played with and adjusted
  7. When submitted the bet will be written to a pending bets page and the form will be cleared

This will enable me to record stats on profit per offer and bookie as well as enable me to keep track of all the bets I have.

Posted February 20, 2012 by apeveryday in Gambling Strategy, General

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Improving the way I do things – stage 1   Leave a comment

I identified in an earlier post reasons why I thought I was struggling to get enough gambling done.

I spent some of my time this weekend trying to tackle a few of these issues and think some more about how I can resolve them.

My nice shiney new PC has enabled me to tackle some of them right away, it’s a nice blank canvas, so I have been setting it up in a sensible manner.

@Dunkeypooh suggested roboform as a solution to my disorganisation with regard having windows open and what not. Well it’s not bad, it integrates nicely into firefox (or IE) and enables me to have nice easy shortcuts to all the bookies I use and it autologs into them. It’s not perfect however, there seems to be issues with a few sites. namely Betfair and Bet365 so far. Its hit and miss whether it logs in on Betfair and it has never been able to store Bet365 login details as it does not seem to recognise the login controls on the web page. So it’s not perfect but it’s still pretty good.

The next step I feel is to start to look at the spreadsheets I use. I find myself firing up the calculator from my windows menu and using that rather than faf around with ultimatcher. Software should make things easier, yes ultimatcher does make record keeping easier on the whole, but it does not make calculating stakes and EV easier. When your sat scouring Bookies for decent odds or searching for Arbs, when you find a good bet, you generally need to move quickly. Ultimatcher does not lend itself to quick and easy calculations, especially if the bet is none standard.

So I am going to have to write my own version of ultimatcher. I am undecided if this will be a spreadsheet yet or via another platform. But the main task it will be geared to is calculations, record keeping will most definitely be secondary.

Features I am going to go for I think….

  • Simple forms which cover a variety of bet types (Dutches, Bet/Lay, ifbets, various multiple strategies)
  • Forms aimed at Betfair trading
  • Forms aimed at Casino play (sometimes Casino’s make it hard to track a WR)
  • Record of Bets (completed and Outstanding)
  • Record of Offers (which can be associated with a particular bet)
  • Reconciliation of Bookie balances to bets made ( although I don’t think the software will track balances at books, just enable me to check that the opening balance less the closing balance of my float is equal to the profit / loss of my activities.)

I am quite adept at both excel, Access and VB. So the App could be a spreadsheet, an access database or perhaps even an App written in VB. Excel is less versatile in many respects than Access, but the data can be played with manually more easily in Excel. An Access or VB app will have to be far more robust than an excel spreadsheet.

If you reading this and have any suggestions as to content let me know.

Posted February 20, 2012 by apeveryday in Gambling Strategy, General

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To lay or not to lay…..   Leave a comment

Calculating EV is not necessary in most decisions, however on occasion, it can be useful. Its also useful to understand EV and how it changes when you tweak your bets.

“If bets” seem to be in vogue with the average bookmaker these days. They offer the bookmaker the ability to promote themselves in general ,direct punters to gamble on certain markets or even to encourage punters to gamble a certain way, which I presume they use for risk management purposes.

An “if bet” is a bet that offers a bonus or refund if certain events occur, such as a red card refund.

These offers in the long term can offer a steady profit for AP players, however in forums and chat rooms you will see players disagree on how to deal with them. Some will try and lay the result to lock in profit, some will not. Of course these decisions can to some degree will depend on the odds of the event occurring. A typical “if bet” however will have odds in excess of 5.0.

Assume zero loss Qualifier at evens (100% refund to £50)
Odds of event (lay value) 5.0
Value of Bonus / Refund £ 50.00
Amount to lay £ 10.00
Profit If event occurs £ 10.00
Profit if event does not occur £ 10.00
Assuming 0% commision
  If Event  
  Probable Win Amount
WW 10.00% 1.00
WL 40.00% 4.00
LW 10.00% 1.00
LL 40.00% 4.00
  100.00% 10.00 << Expected Value
Assume zero loss Qualifier at evens (100% refund to £50)
Odds of event (lay value) 5.0
Value of Bonus / Refund £ 50.00
Amount to lay £ –
Profit If event occurs £ 50.00
Profit if event does not occur £ –
Assuming 0% commision
  If Event  
  Probable Win Amount  
WW 10.00% 5.00
WL 40.00% 0.00
LW 10.00% 5.00
LL 40.00% 0.00
  100.00% 10.00 << Expected Value

It appears based on my dodgy analysis that at zero commission laying or not laying has no bearing on the expected outcome it seems. If we factor in commission however…….

Assume zero loss Qualifier at evens (100% refund to £50)
Odds of event (lay value) 5.0
Value of Bonus / Refund £ 50.00
Amount to lay £ 10.10
Profit If event occurs £ 9.60
Profit if event does not occur £ 9.60
Assuming 5% commision
  If Event  
  Probable Win Amount
WW 10.00% 0.96
WL 40.00% 3.84
LW 10.00% 0.96
LL 40.00% 3.84
  100.00% 9.60  << Expected Value
Assume zero loss Qualifier at evens (100% refund to £50)
Odds of event (lay value) 5.0
Value of Bonus / Refund £ 50.00
Amount to lay £ –
Profit If event occurs £ 50.00
Profit if event does not occur £ –
Assuming 5% commision
  If Event  
  Probable Win Amount  
WW 10.00% 5.00
WL 40.00% 0.00
LW 10.00% 5.00
LL 40.00% 0.00
  100.00% 10.00 << Expected Value

It seems by not laying or laying less, you are reducing your exposure to commission and therefore increasing the expected value of the bet. But of course risk increases as you will be exposing yourself to the some what unpredictable variance and not laying is a pure gamble. Though of course assuming you’re laying off the risk of the qualifier it will be risk free.